Gold futures bounced during the trading session on Thursday amid a mixed set of economic data. Prices hit the lower band of the consolidation range at Rs 46,950, key support for the day. Resistance is seen near Rs 47,600 (200-DEMA). It is expected to consolidate in the broad range of Rs 46,950-47,750 ahead of today’s Fed chair comments at Jackson Hole Symposium. If it moves below the lower band of the range, then it might fall towards Rs 46,750-46,600 zone. On the momentum front, RSI is hovering around the neutral zone (50) at 49, suggesting a sideways trend. So for the day, the price is expected to move in the range of Rs 46,950-47,750 with a sideways bias. Only a close above Rs 47,750 would bring fresh buying interest in gold futures.
Trading Range: Rs 46,950-47,750
MCX Silver futures moved lower on Thursday as it failed to hold above the 8-day EMA support at Rs 62,980. As mentioned before, the 20-day EMA at Rs 64,200 is the crucial hurdle for silver, a break above which would attract buyers. On the lower front, Rs 62,100 and Rs 61,500 holds key supports for the day. Meanwhile, the bullish crossover of MACD above its 9-day average has supported the bullish view. On the RSI front, a positive divergence on the short-term chart has also supported the recovery in price. So as long as Rs 61,500 level holds, the price is expected to move towards Rs 64,200. Only a sustained move above Rs 64,200 would bring fresh buying interest and push silver price towards Rs 65,500.
Trading Strategy: Buy MCX Silver Sep at Rs 62,200. Target price: Rs 64,200. Stop loss: Rs 61,500
(Ravindra Rao is CMT , EPAT, VP-Head Commodity Research, Kotak Securities Ltd. Views are his own)
Here is a look at how different commodities are behaving in today’s market.
Bullion prices traded firm on Friday with spot gold prices at COMEX up 0.40 per cent near $1,799 per ounce while spot silver prices marginally up at $23.60 per ounce in morning trade. The precious metals traded volatile ahead of Fed chairman speech at Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday. The dollar index traded under pressure with market discounting a hawkish stance from Fed. The slower economic recovery and surge in virus cases may support bullion prices to trade firm for the day. We expect bullion prices to trade sideways to up for the day on mixed global cues.
Trading Strategy: MCX Gold October resistance for the day lies at Rs 47,700 per 10 gram with support at Rs 47,100 per 10 gram. MCX Silver September support lies at Rs 61,800 per kg, resistance at Rs 64,500 per kg.
Outlook: Crude Oil
Crude oil prices traded higher on Friday with benchmark NYMEX WTI crude oil prices trading 0.95 per cent down near $68.06 per barrel in morning trade. Natural gas prices rallied by more than 7 per cent on supply crunch fears. Crude oil prices gained on possible supply disruption in Gulf of Mexico as tropical storm Ida is nearing the key producing region. Energy companies have begun shutting production in the Gulf of Mexico ahead of a potential hurricane forecast to hit on the weekend. We expect crude oil prices to trade sideways to down for the day.
Trading Strategy: MCX Crude Oil September support lies at Rs 4,980 per barrel with resistance at Rs 5,160 per barrel.
Outlook: Base Metals
Base metals prices traded weak with most of the metals in lower trading range on Friday morning trade. Base metals traded under pressure on speculation related to the Jackson Hole Symposium. A majority of Fed officials are in favour of early policy change which may further add pressure to base metals with slower economic recovery. Base metals may trade sideways to down for the day.
Trading Strategy: MCX Copper September support lies at Rs 708 and resistance at Rs 717. MCX Zinc September support lies at Rs 243, resistance at Rs 250. MCX Nickel September support lies at Rs 1,380 with resistance at Rs 1,430.
(Tapan Patel is Senior Analyst, Commodities, HDFC Securities. Views are his own)